Consumer confidence increased further in January: RBI survey

The January round of the bi-monthly Consumer Confidence Survey obtained current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one-year-ahead expectations on the general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest survey round was conducted from 2 January to 11 January, covering 6,047 respondents, RBI said.

“Consumer confidence improved further both for the current period as well as for the year ahead; the current situation index (CSI) continued on its recovery path for the ninth survey round since the historic low recorded in mid-2021 and increased by 1.3 points in January 2023 on the back of improved sentiments on the general economic situation and household income,” the survey results showed.

The current situation index climbed to 116.2 points in the January survey from 114.9 in the previous round. A number above 100 reflects optimism.

On the other hand, the one-year ahead outlook, as reflected by the future expectations index (FEI), also rose by 1.3 points to its two-year high on the back of improved optimism on the general economic situation, employment and income over the next year.

The future expectations index improved to 84.8 from 83.5, even though it still remains in the pessimistic zone.

The index for general economic conditions for the year ahead improved sharply from 11.6 to 17 in the latest survey, while the sentiments for employment and spending improved slightly from 21.2 to 21.6 and 70.2 to 70.8, respectively. Survey respondents showed optimism on income levels, with the year ahead index for the same jumping from 44.9 to 47.6, survey results showed.

To be sure, consumers’ sentiment on current expenses witnessed some moderation, but their expectations of overall spending improved marginally for both essential and non-essential items.

Meanwhile, a separate survey conducted by the central bank showed that Households’ inflation perception for the current period moderated by 20 basis points to 9.6%.

“Inflation expectation of households rose by 10 bps for the three months ahead period whereas their one year ahead expectations remained unchanged from the November 2022 round of the survey,” the survey showed.

Among consumption categories, the proportion of respondents perceiving price rise was highest for the food group for both the horizons, as also witnessed in the previous two survey rounds, it added.

“Respondents expect higher price pressures for household durables and cost of housing over the next three months when compared to the previous survey round,” the survey results noted.

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