Dalal Street week ahead: RBI MPC meet, auto sales, PMI data among factors that may drive Nifty, Sensex

The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 1,031.43 points or 1.78 per cent to finish at 58,991.52. The broader NSE Nifty zoomed 279.05 points or 1.63 per cent to settle at 17,359.75. The rise helped the benchmarks snap a three-month losing streak.

Niche sectors like Sugar and Defence too were in limelight and this momentum will likely continue, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

RBI’s monetary policy decision

This week, investors will focus on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision, due on 6 April, which will give further cues to the bond market.

The RBI will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points and then pause for the rest of the year, according to reports.

“In the near term, focus will now remain on RBI’s policy meeting next week, where 25-bps rate hike is expected in line with the hikes done by major global central banks. Apart from this, markets will also react to monthly Auto sales number data that will be released over the weekend,” Khemka added.

Macroeconomic data

On the macroeconomic front, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data are scheduled on 3 and 5 April.

“The coming week is also a holiday-shortened one and scheduled events and data would keep the participants busy. We have auto sales numbers, which start pouring in at the beginning of a new month,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Nifty

“We expect the recovery to strengthen next week and eyeing 17,600 in Nifty now. Meanwhile, the 17,200 level would be critical to hold to maintain the positive bias. While all sectors are contributing to the move, banking, financials and FMCG should be preferred over others for fresh longs. We feel it’s prudent to stick with largecap counters and stay selective in midcap and smallcap space,” Mishra stated.

Global markets

Apart from domestic factors, global cues and trends of foreign flows will also be in focus. “In the US, the release of personal consumption expenditures data is awaited, as it is a crucial indicator for forecasting the Federal Reserve’s future actions,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial services.

“We expect global markets to stabilise,” said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research and Advisory.