ICICI Bank Q4 results preview: Experts see rise in PAT, NII; contraction in NIMs

ICICI Bank Q4 results 2024 preview

Speaking on ICICI Bank’s Q4 results preview for FY24, Shreyansh V Shah, Research Analyst at StoxBox said, “ICICI Bank is likely to post mid-teen annual growth in net profit in the fourth quarter, driven by healthy loan book growth, especially in retail and SME segments. The NIIs are also anticipated to show mid-single-digit growth along with traction in PPOP. We expect the asset quality to be stable, with lower sequential credit costs on the back of reversal of AIF provisions.”

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“The challenge of garnering low-cost deposits is likely to be visible on NIMs which should compress marginally this quarter. We will closely monitor management comments on the NIM outlook, their strategy for deposit mobilization, outlook on the unsecured loan book, anticipated credit costs, and branch expansion strategy,” the StoxBox expert added.

Highlighting the key concern areas in ICICI Bank’s Q4 results 2024, Kotak Securities said, “Key concern would be the progress of NIM as the cost of funds is yet to peak, especially with slower CASA growth. Deposit mobilization is likely to be another key area of discussion.”

On key business areas of the ICICI Bank that will be in focus, Equirus Securities said, “Key things to look for will be comments on trends in housing loan business as well as Capex cycle, expected growth, and trends in retail non-performing assets (NPAs).”

Advising stock market investors to have a realistic approach while assessing the Q4 results of ICICI Bank, Prabhudas Lilladher said, “Banks under our coverage are expected to witness a weak quarter, as core earnings could fall by 4.6% QoQ to Rs483bn (vs +1.1% QoQ in Q3’24), mainly driven by reduction in NIM. Loan growth might come in at 4% QoQ (4.3% in Q3FY24), while deposit accretion could be +5.3% QoQ (1.9% last quarter). LDR may fall by 1% QoQ to 86% mainly led by HDFCB. NIM contraction would increase this quarter (vs Q3FY24) and we expect NIM to decline by 10bps QoQ (-2bps in Q3’24) to 3.55%.”

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“IIB, CUB, and DCB may see better NIM performance. Owing to seasonality in the case of PSU banks, fees for could grow by 9.7% QoQ to Rs360bn which would be offset by higher opex at Rs918bn (+10.5% QoQ). Core PPoP may come in at Rs720bn (-4.4% QoQ). AXSB, ICICIB, and HDFCB might do better on core PPoP. The gross slippage ratio might see a decline of 9bps QoQ as large banks had witnessed an increase in agri slippages in Q3’24. Banks’ PAT is expected to decline by 6.1% QoQ to Rs534bn. Among our coverage universe, we prefer AXSB and HDFCB,” Prabhudas Lilladher’s report added.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Published: 27 Apr 2024, 09:21 AM IST