Market next week: Nifty showing signs of fatigue; election results, RBI to be in focus
Last week, the Nifty, Sensex, and Banknifty all hit new highs, but there was some profit-taking at higher levels. We were outperforming, and now global cues are also supporting us. The good news is that the sluggish broader market has started to improve. Global cues continue to cause volatility, but this week the market’s focus will shift to domestic cues like RBI policy and state election results. The outcome of the RBI policy is scheduled for 7 December, while the results of the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections will come on 8 December. On the global front, the US bond yields and the dollar index have fallen sharply, and markets will continue to watch their move from here. India is also benefiting from the low crude oil prices, which did not rise despite the drop in the dollar index. Institutional flows might be tepid in December; therefore, we may see major activity in the broader market.
Technically, the overall structure of the Nifty is still bullish, but some consolidation or a pullback can’t be ruled out at higher levels. 18888 and 19000 are immediate resistance levels for the Nifty, and then 19300 will be the next target level. On the downside, 18600–18550 is an immediate demand zone, while 18440 is the next important support level.
Banknifty is also showing some fatigue at 43500, followed by a vertical rally, but there are no signs of weakness. 43000–42600 is an immediate and strong demand zone, while 42200–41800 is the next major support area. On the upside, 44000/44444 will be the next target levels.
If we look at the derivative data, then the long exposure of FIIs in index futures has come down to 66% from an elevated level of 75%, and the put/call ratio has dipped into the oversold territory from overbought territory in a matter of two days.
*Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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Ganesh
http://ganesh@finplay.inFinance enthusiast, Mutual fund expert.