Sensex took less than 6 months to jump from 65k to 70k: A look at its journey from 1,000 in 1990 to 70,000 now

The benchmark surged 232 points in intra-day deals to its new peak of 70,057.83. This is the 5th session in December when the Sensex has hit its peak.

It has taken Sensex less than 6 months or around 107 sessions to rise from 65k levels to 70k. The index first crossed the 65k mark on July 3, 2023. In this current year, the benchmark has crossed multiple milestones from hitting 64k for the first time in June 2023 to breaching the 70k level for the first time today.

Meanwhile, Nifty50 also hit its new record high of 21,026.10, up 57 points, in intra-day deals. However, broader markets did not hit new peaks in trade today.

The rise comes after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent as expected and raised the FY24 GDP forecast to 7 percent from 6.5 percent earlier. However, it retained the FY24 CPI inflation forecast at 5.4 percent. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank also retained its stance of remaining focused on “withdrawal of accommodation.”

Apart from Friday’s policy decision, continued foreign investor inflows, strong macro data, state election results and fall in crude oil prices as well as supporting global market trends have also lifted the index to its peak.

“Global and domestic cues favour continuation of the ongoing rally in the market despite high valuations. FIIs turning buyers, strong DII inflows, exuberant retail investors and a thriving IPO market supported by strong economic fundamentals can sustain the rally in the short run ignoring the high valuations. The overarching message from the RBI on Wednesday was that 7 percent GDP growth for FY 24 is a conservative estimate. This is an indication of the growth momentum in the economy,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

The index has already surged over 4 percent in December, giving negative returns in just 1 session of the current month so far. This comes after a 5 percent rise in November. Overall, in 2023 YTD, the index has gained almost 15 percent; meanwhile, in the last 1 year, it has advanced over 12 percent.

From its birth in January 1986 with trading levels of about 550 points, to reaching its all-time high of over 70,000 points today in 2023, the Sensex has managed to maintain its boom, despite having multiple periods of sharp decline like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

Let’s take a look at Sensex and its journey from 1,000 to 70,000

The first 1,000-point rise took Sensex 970 session and was hit in July 1990, over 4 years after starting. However, the next 1,000 points took only 270 sessions.

The 5,000 mark was hit by Sensex in October 1999, over 13 years after its start. The 10,000 mark took just 7 years after that with the Sensex hitting the level for the first time in February 2006. The same year, the Sensex crossed the 11,000, 12,000 and 13,000 levels as well by October.

The next year in 2007, the Sensex hit the 20,000 mark in December. It took the Sensex 109 sessions for this 10k jump.

However, it took the index 3 years after that to gain the next 1,000 points, which was achieved in November 2010. This lag was on the back of the global financial crisis. Similarly, it took the Sensex almost 4 years to reach the 22k mark in March 2014.

2014 was a strong year for the index when it crossed multiple milestones and reached the 28,000-mark in November 2014. The next 1,000 points took 50 sessions and was hit in January 2015 to reach the 29k level but then it took the index 225 sessions or over 2 years for the next 1,000 points. It hit its 30k mark in April 2017.

In 2017, the Sensex again crossed multiple milestones to 34,000 levels in December 2017. It then took just 16 sessions to hit the 35,000 mark in January 2018.

The next 5,000 points took around 1.5 years and the 40k mark was hit in June 2019 before COVID. While a few months were disturbed due to the pandemic, the index hit the 45,000 mark in December 2020, rising strongly since November of that year.

The next 5,000 points took just 2 months and the 50,000 milestone was hit by Sensex on February 3, 2021. In 2021 only, the Sensex soared another 10,000 points to hit its 60,000 mark in September 2021.

However, its journey from 60k to 65k took a while. Over one and a half years and 438 sessions later, the Sensex hit 65k on July 3, 2023.

And as mentioned earlier, the last 5000 points have taken less than 6 months.

After crossing 67,000 points in July 2023, it took nearly 93 sessions or 4.6 months for the Sensex to cross the 68,000 points mark and the next 1,000 point milestone came its way in a day. 

The latest 10,000-point milestone from 59k took place in 550 sessions or 27 months.

Investment advice

Sameet Chavan, Head of Research – Technical and Derivatives, Angel One

Traders are encouraged to consider some profit-taking around these levels. While momentum indicators signal overbought conditions, the strong trend indicates inherent strength. However, caution is advised, and traders should manage risk effectively rather than taking aggressive positions. Monitoring the specified levels is crucial for strategic trade placement. The week witnessed broad-based buying, but moving forward, a selective approach is recommended. With the primary trend favoring bullishness, sector rotation is expected. Traders are advised to focus on thematic movements for potentially outperforming trades while remaining vigilant in the dynamic market environment.

Axis Securities

We believe that macroeconomic developments will continue to drive the market fundamentals in the near term. The critical near-term monitorables will be the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the direction of the US 10-year bond yields, the direction of the dollar index, and the trend of crude prices. All these developments will keep the market volatile in the near term and respond in either direction based on the ensuing developments. We could see a new high in the market if the bond yields and the crude prices remain at the same levels for the entire month.

The theme ‘Growth at a Reasonable Price’ looks attractive at the current juncture. Hence, we recommend investors to remain invested in the market and maintain good liquidity (10%) to use any dips in a phased manner and build a position in high-quality companies (where the earnings visibility is quite high) with an investment horizon of 12-18 months.

Kotak Securities

We have seen a strong performance of the Indian equities supported by relatively stable macro factors, healthy earnings growth, and robust domestic flows. Going ahead, the equity market will continue to track inflation data, actions and commentaries of key central banks, bond yield, crude price movement, geopolitical developments, and the outcome of elections.

We have seen strong outperformance in mid-cap and small-cap; whereas large-caps have relatively underperformed over the past few months. Some of the largecaps that underperformed in 2023 are trading at a reasonable valuation. Most banks and NBFCs are also trading at reasonable valuations. Post a muted 2023, the consumption demand is expected to gradually recover in the next 2-3 quarters.

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Published: 11 Dec 2023, 02:39 PM IST